Just take Brees

Article written by Ziggy, Gordo, Lefty

Hi. I'm Drew Brees.

Ok, guys, I have a few questions. I'm looking for some draft advice. I'll write everything out here, and maybe you can post this, Lefty, along with your responses (so it'll be kind of Stream of Consciousness, rather than a planned piece).

First, some details to get out of the way: this is for my work league, which is 10 man, non-PPR, with 6 point passing TDs. I don't like ANY of those rules, but it's a work league, so I'm stuck with it. We might change to 12 man this season, but the other rules won't change.

I have the fourth pick this year. It IS a keeper league, but we limit how many years we're allowed to keep players. Last year, I had Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon as my keepers, since they cost me very late draft picks (12th+ round for each). Unfortunately, I've reached my limit for how long I can keep Brown and if Gordon is suspended for a full year, he's not worth keeping. I do have a bright spot in that I can keep Le'Veon Bell as my 9th round pick this year. That's solid value.

OK, so I was looking at how positions score relative to each other in this format (again, non-PPR and 6 point pass TDs). I'm used to other formats, and tend to do a lot of mock drafts there, so my player evaluation is off here. I'd like to use you guys as a sounding board. Since this is based on how players score relative to others, it'll have strong elements of value based drafting.

You should draft me.

Since I have the 4th pick, I think one of the big 4 RBs is my first move: Charles, McCoy, Forte, Peterson. Last season, Charles was far and away the best RB, outscoring the number 2 RB, McCoy, by 32 points. Forte was 3rd with 249 points and Peterson was 7th with 191 in this league (that's already a 100 point drop from #1). I suspect Charles and McCoy will be gone before my pick; if they somehow aren't, I'm grabbing either one and smiling. If they aren't available, who's the smart pick at 4th: Peterson, Forte, or Lacy? Am I crazy for considering Forte over Peterson at 4th?

I would grab Forte over Peterson at 4th in PPR but in Non-ppr Peterson makes for a closer contest, granted Forte still gets yardage and TDs from the air.  Forte also just came off of his best year on the ground and in the air.  AP just came off of his second lowest performance.  Forte's only a season younger than AP.  Right now Forte is on the up but I'd be comfortable with either.

Forte is a pretty consistent player. He may not astound you with his numbers but you can depend on him week in and week out. On the other hand, Peterson is a pretty consistent player and WILL astound you. The difference between the two is exactly what Gordo pointed out - the receiving yards Forte gets. In a non-PPR league, I would consider Peterson over Forte.

In the second round.

Coming back in the 2nd round, I will obviously target the best available player, but how do I evaluate that? Do I take a RB or WR? The difference between the 1st and 10th RB, 119 points, is larger than the difference between the same WRs, 40 points. It gets even larger when you consider the 1st and 20th players (the difference between the best and theoretical worst scorer in this format)- 161 for RBs to only 89 for WRs. This indicates that RB scoring potential is more limited and thus that position is more scarce and that I should probably value RBs slightly higher in my "who's the best player left" considerations. This is why a top RB round 1 is the way I'm going, but I'm not sure the argument holds water in round 2. 

However, a lot of that is thrown off by Charles outscoring his peers by so much. After the top scoring players, RBs plateau more than WRs do. The difference between the next set of theoretical starters (11th best versus 20th best scorers) is larger for WRs! There are some interesting notes here though, The 11th best RB, Fred Jackson, had 174 points. The 11th best WR, Jordy Nelson, had 173 points. For the 20th best, Danny Woodhead and Torrey Smith, they tied with 132 points. I think I've just myself into leaning toward RB in round 2 (I'd consider Jimmy Graham, but let's face it, he'd never be available at the tail end of round 2). RBs should go often and early here, with WRs targeted in middle rounds. That's the way I'm leaning- do you agree?

I agree.  But during the draft you should obviously assess the available talent and choose best value since you'll have two valuable RBs at that point.  So go RB unless a better WR value is still there.

Again I am on the same page as both of you. RB/RB in the first two rounds is normally what I would advise. However! If you manage to keep Bell for a 9th round pick, you can take a chance on a WR or a QB here. You really can't lose with this pick. If you go RB, you will have some talent to trade away for something you need during the season. If you go QB, you almost guarantee that you get one of the top QB's in the league. Normally this would only be a minor boost to your final numbers, but with 6 points for a throwing TD, this is a much more explosive boost. If you go WR then you have 2 solid RB's and a solid WR. Your team will be fleshing itself out pretty nicely. I don't see many ways you can lose on this pick.

I did a mock just now though, and let me show some sample players available to me in the second round (17th pick overall), how they scored last year, and where they were mock drafted: Montee Ball (77) at 18th, Giovanni Bernard (148) at 19th, Doug Martin (50) at 20th, and LeVeon Bell (159) at 26th for RBs and Julio Jones (injured, not checking) at 17th (my pick), Antonio Brown (199) at 21st, and Jordy Nelson (173) at 27th for WRs, I know I'm not supposed to chase last year's points, and that up above I had "convinced" myself to look at RBs in a slightly higher light, but honestly, how do I look at those players and not think "Julio Jones is the best" right at 17th? Since RB scoring is so all over the place, how do I feel secure in my planning there. Do I shoot for the stud RBs pair, hoping one is a dud this year; or do I shore up my starters and go RB-WR?

If you can grab someone like Giovanni Bernard it might be worth going for it.  But you obviously already have a 2nd rd pick in Bell so it's like drafting another round 2.  If I had to picks in round two I would split it RB-WR.  As always, if the price is right go for the guy you want, but at 2nd pick I like Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson or Giovanni Bernard; in that order.

Yup, that's what I've been saying.

Here's where I throw in a monkey wrench... do I take Drew Brees with my second round pick? In the mock I just did, Manning went in the 1st round, and Rodgers with the second pick in the 3rd round. I actually took Brees with my pick in the 3rd. Normally, I like late round QBs, but in this format, the drop off in QB scoring relative to itself is LARGER than the drop among all other positions. The difference between the best QB and worst theoretical starter was 206 points, versus 161 for RBs, 111 for TEs, and 89 for WRs. Since we have 6 point passing TDs, and the other positions don't get a boost from PPR, I think I have to target one of the big QBs EARLY! I'm taking Manning, Brees, or Rodgers. In the mock I just did, the latter two were available at the start of the third, in reality, I suspect they'll go in the second. We all know whatever careful planning we do- hoping to grab QBs late and hoping certain sleepers drop really late- goes right out the window in real drafts. The thing is, the drop off among the top scoring QBs is so much larger than other positions, I think I have to target them early. Manning scored 500 points last season, which is 88 more than Brees's 412 in second. Brees in turn, outscored the third best QB, Rivers, by 85 points. Let me rephrase that, the drop off between the 1st QB and the 3rd QB was larger than the difference between the 1st and 20th RBs! 

Take Drew Brees in the Second.  Wait for the Third if you think he'll survive the few picks on the turn, but the same goes for whatever RB or WR is available.  Forte or AP in RD1, Brees or Julio Jones in RD2, Brees or Jones in RD3...

Normally I would say wait on a QB but the 6 points per throwing TD is big. You could take a chance with someone later in the draft (maybe Foles will continue his high scoring performances?) but if you want the guaranteed points, pick up Brees. If you want to guarantee double the points, take Graham in the first and Brees in the second. Sounds dumb, but you just got yourself big points in a position that doesn't have a lot of big talent (TE), and big points in a position where the top few do much better than the rest (QB). Add to that the fact that you already have a RB you are keeping and you start your draft off decently well. It is not something I would do, but I can see why someone would and wouldn't be upset with that drafting strategy. 

So again, do I take Drew Brees in the 2nd round? I'd love to gamble and take him in the 3rd, but taking him in the 2nd really might be the best move. In this format, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees will probably so outscore any other players that they can steal wins. I think I like that. One note, if I wrongly gamble on Brees being available to me in the 3rd, I'm right back to late round QB strategy. The very next two QBs scores last season were Rivers (327) in third and Dalton (320) in 4th. Both of these guys went undrafted, suggesting if you don't get a stud, you can find a diamond in the rough late (and wasting an early pick on Luck or Stafford isn't worth it).

It's getting a little long, so I'll skip later round picks. Obviously in the middle and late rounds, I'll be going for best available and loading up on RBs and WRs. So let me just recap... In my 10 man, 6 point pass TD, non-PPR league, do I go RB early and often? Do I bother with a WR among my first three rounds? How early should I try to grab Drew Brees- if he's available to me in the 2nd, do I take him? Is he an absolute must draft in the 3rd round? 

Yes. If Brees drops to the 3rd round in a 6 point per throwing TD league, you MUST pick him up. If Payton falls to you in the second I don't see how you pass on that, but that isn't realistic. Brees in the 3rd is a win. 

Considering Le'Veon Bell is being drafted in the 3rd round and I can keep him going into this year, I'll be assured two "top" RB picks... this only makes me want to take Brees that much earlier here.

I think you already convinced yourself that you are taking Brees. This entire thought experiment was pointless. Take Brees.

That guy knows what he's talking about.