Diamond in the Rough

Article written by Ziggy

Ok, so the topic here is which players are must haves at their positions, but come from bad teams?

I guess the first thing is define what a bad team is. I know we've argued back and forth a bit, but I'm going to base mine on previous history. Last season, Altanta was 4-12, which downright stinks. However, even now, I wouldn't consider the Falcons a bad team. They're a good team that had a bad year. They've been over .500 in the five seasons preceding that one. That's good enough for 2 first place and 2 second place finishes in their division (and the years they placed second, they were still good, but New Orleans was just a bit better). On the flipside, Carolina did really well last season, but stunk in previous years, so they count as a “bad team.”

So that's what I'm going with: bad teams are those who have been historically pretty bad the last few seasons, call it five or six.

A few years ago, I would have argued that MJD squarely fit this criteria with the Jags. At Oakland, he’s still on a bad team, but I wouldn’t consider him “must own” this year. His ADP puts him in the middle rounds of the draft, far from “stud” projections. Anyway, on to the rest:

I think there are two players that fit this description best: Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson. There are strong arguments that these guys represent the best at their respective positions on the field in real life. You can count on these guys for strong, if not number one, finishes in fantasy every year. Barring 2011, Detroit's been sub .500 for years and years. Minnesota has fared a little better with a couple first place finishes in their division in ‘08 and ‘09, but since then, there's been more bad than good. 

In Detroit, Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush, and Joique Bell are all worthy considerations (especially the latter two in PPR leagues). Bush and Bell split carries and still ended up the twelfth and fourteenth best WRs in 0.5 PPR leagues, respectively. Stafford was and will be a top ten QB in fantasy, but his value is limited considering many of his peers who go in later rounds, like Phil Rivers and Tony Romo, will be nipping at his heels. Basically, I’m arguing, "why spend a fifth round pick on Stafford when you can get Rivers in the eighth or later?"

As for the rest of Minnesota? I’m not buying into Cordarelle Paterson yet. Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder aren’t exactly awe inspiring, and though he showed flashes of brilliance, no one can convince me he’s worth his current draft spot. Even if he somehow manages 1400 yards receiving (unlikely), I won’t feel bad skipping over him in my drafts.

Cam Newton is a very good QB, and the Carolina Panthers are bad, as mentioned above. Last season, he was good enough for a top five finish among QBs in most leagues, and his current ADP (I’ve seen going around the seventh round) makes him worth the wait, especially considering he outscores guys being drafted before him, like Matt Stafford.

The Tampa Bay Bucs have been a consistently bad team, and Vincent Jackson has been very good for several years. His past two seasons in Tampa, he’s put up 70+ catches, 1200+ yards, and 7+ TDs. He’s not a surefire top ten receiver (thirteenth among WRs last season in PPR leagues), but he’s very good. Doug Martin is a BIG question mark. He had one stellar year, and one lackluster year. I won’t call him a stud. I won’t call him must own. I think he’ll be gone before the end of the second round in drafts, and I don’t think you’ll regret owning him, but he’s not as good among RBs as Jackson is among WRs.

I’ll throw Josh Gordon out there, but with the suspension over his head, he might not be worth owning. On one hand, yes, he most definitely is a stud WR on a bad team (the Browns have just two finishes over .500 since returning to the league in 2009). However, if he’s suspended all 16 games, he’s definitely not worth owning in redraft leagues. So what does that make him? Ask me again in a couple weeks.

So let’s see, who else is a bad team? At least, which are the teams I perceive as bad? Buffalo and Miami are bad teams. I wouldn’t consider any of their players studs. Mike Wallace might be nice to have at his current price of the fifth or sixth round, but he’s no stud. The Jags are a bad team, and I’m not sold on anyone on their roster. Oakland is a bad team, and considering you can get him in the tenth round or later, James Jones might be a pleasant surprise, but he’s certainly not a stud.

In summation, who do I think are must have players on bad teams? Two: Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson. These guys are bona fide studs, no matter how you cut it. Who do I think are good players worth owning from bad teams? Detroit’s lucky they have such a high power offense: Stafford, Bush, and Bell are all worth owning. Cam Newton and Vincent Jackson won’t disappoint their owners. Josh Gordon gets an asterisk.