Analysis of Gordo’s Team

Article Written by Ziggy

Here are the mock draft results we’ll be discussing (drafting last in a 12 man league):

1. A.J. Green (Cin - WR)
2. Dez Bryant (Dal - WR)
3. Reggie Bush (Det - RB)
4. Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)
5. Jordan Cameron (Cle - TE)
6. Torrey Smith (Bal - WR)
7. Ray Rice (Bal - RB)
8. Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)
9. Fred Jackson (Buf - RB)
10. Philip Rivers (SD - QB)
11. Kenny Stills (NO - WR)
12. Dan Bailey (Dal - K)
13. Heath Miller (Pit - TE)
14. Devonta Freeman (Atl - RB)
15. Baltimore (Bal - DEF)

Before we begin the evaluation, it’s clear Gordo and I drafted on different sites (and hence have different player evaluations) based on where he took some of these guys. Devonta Freeman went in the 14^th round? That’d never happen on the site I use- usually he’s gone by the 8^th/9th. Another thing, it is clear Gordo and I share a lot in common in draft style. I mean, we both grabbed Devonta Freeman as a bench stash, and we both took Rivers as a late round quarterback. Obviously we’ve been sharing too much in our daily emails on the topic, and we’re just going to end up sniping each other’s picks and end up with shitty teams and lose it all… OH WAIT! Gordo or I always win the league!

Oh, a third thing: since my favorite two leagues are 0.5 PPR, I’ll be using that as my guideline for my evaluations.

We’ll start with the top two picks, AJ Green at 12^th and Dez Bryant at 13^th overall, and frankly I LOVE them. Normally, I’m a heavy RB drafter. I’ve heard all the different strategies over the years. I’ve tried most of them out, and I keep coming back to drafting RBs early. It’s my thing. Except this year, I’m not so sure I’m going to do that. After what many consider the top four (MCoy, Charles, Forte, Peterson), there’s a lot of… well sameness… to RBs and I think it’s hard to predict who’s going to top who. Snagging a top WR round 1 and then grabbing a couple RBs in the 2^nd/3^rd/4^th might be the smart thing to do this year.  That being said, Dez Bryant in the second round is a steal, in my opinion. A one-two punch of AJ Green AND Dez Bryant?! That’s going to be a very difficult pair of WRs for other teams to compete against. (And again, these guys being available at the turn show how different our mock draft sites are. On the site I usually draft on, neither Dez nor AJ make it past the 10^th pick, let alone to the 2^nd round!)

After going WR-WR in rounds 1 and 2, I see Gordo’s filled out his roster going RB-RB in the next two rounds. I like Reggie Bush. I drafted him pretty high (3^rd round) last season. This season, I’m not as hot on him. I still think he’ll be phenomenal, but I’m not sure he’s RB1 material. I think he’s priced exactly right- 3^rd round value, but I like taking him when I know my first RB isn’t splitting time the amount Bush might.  However, I think Ryan Mathews is a good compliment in the 4^th. My few concerns about Bush aside, I think the two RBs are a solid addition to the roster with those WRs. I think any potential deficiencies in Gordo’s RB scoring (and I do think these guys have great potential in PPR!) will be made up by his WRs.

For example, let’s look at someone on the flip side of Gordo’s draft. The guy in the 4^th spot drafted Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Antonio Brown, and Roddy White. I think that is also a very solid set of starters… but Gordo’s is better. Brown may be in for another huge year, but so are Dez and AJ. Those two will surely outscore White. And while Eddie Lacy might be the best RB of the four, I think the overall pairing of RBs is in Gordo’s favor. The point is Gordo went WR-WR first, and I think it paid off handsomely for him.

The 5^th round, Jordan Cameron, is my biggest issue with this mock draft. I understand Cameron was very, very good last year. I understand that Josh Gordon may not play this year, and that someone in Cleveland will have catch passes. Still, if you’re not drafting Jimmy Graham, I think week-to-week TE scoring is fairly level across the rest of the bunch. Guys like Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, and Kyle Rudolph all have similar scoring potential right now, but are available in the 6^th round or later. Some of those guys might be volume guys, like Olsen, while others are red zone studs, like Rudolph, and may be streaky, but not to the point they’ll be the reason your team lost (just like Cameron probably won’t be the reason your team won). Another thing, Cameron’s been in the league 3 years, and only has the one stellar season, while the other three guys I mentioned have been consistently producing. I’ll take that any day.

Two Rat-birds go next: Torrey Smith and Ray Rice. I have to say, these are great picks. Smith isn’t as good as many other receivers, but he’s still the volume receiver on a fairly good team with a fairly good quarterback (NO, FLACCO IS NOT ELITE). He’ll be a great option for bye weeks and flex plays. Ditto Ray Rice. His 2 game suspension (a joke if you ask me, but that’s a topic for another day) means starting week 3, he’ll slot right into the flex or starting RB positions. The rumors are that he’s leaner and faster than last season, and if he’s got a chip on his shoulder, this may translate to outstanding performance on the field. I wouldn't be surprised if Rice is a top 15 scorer amongst RBs this season, and that’s a huge value in the 7^th round. And no, Bernard Pierce DOES NOT represent a threat to Rice’s volume. Baltimore did all they could to give him the opportunity to prove himself last season, and he did nothing with it; They gave him carries, they threw him passes… and he did worse than Rice did. Pierce is a career back up, and the NFL is a WIN NOW league. Rice is the better player; the second he can start and he’s in game shape, he’ll be the starter. Period.

This is getting a little long, so let me hit these middle picks quickly. I like Sanders in the 8^th. He’s got a great QB; he’ll do well. The only issue is that Peyton has so many options, he may not get the volume of looks he got in Pittsburgh. I suspect he’ll end up the #2 WR there in terms of receptions though.

If the rumors that Buffalo is looking to trade Spiller are true, Fred Jackson is a huge boon for Gordo in the 9^th round. At this point, he may end up with an overabundance of RB talent, and he’ll be able to make some great trades during the season.

Philip Rivers in the 10^th round is insane. This guy was a top QB last season (sixth among QBs) and in some leagues went undrafted. This year he is once going very late or as a back up. That’s criminally stupid. Folks, save your early picks for WRs and RBs and grab your QBs late. Rivers has been producing at a high level for years, so I have no clue where this lack of confidence in his abilities, as evidenced by his low ADP, comes from. Kaepernick, Wilson… these guys may be hot names right now, and that “Oh! Shiny!” factor may have people chasing them in early rounds, but they aren’t worth it. For Christ’s sake, Andy Dalton was the 4^th highest scoring QB last season, and the dude went way, way late! Don’t look for the shiny new QB, look for the guy who is good, with solid targets, and a young receiver with star potential. Last year I drafted Dalton and won my league. This year, Rivers is the guy I’m gunning for.

Kenny Stills is a guy I’m going for myself. Yes, New Orleans drafted Cooks. Yes Cooks will be good. But Drew Brees spreads the ball around like no one else can. He’ll hit Graham and Colston and Cooks, and Stills will still get a ton of looks. He’s younger than Colston, he’s got more experience with Drew than Cooks does… Stills has value. And let’s not forget that last season, the Brees-Stills connection produced a higher QB Rating than any other QB-WR pair.

A kicker this early? I get that it was autodrafted, so no comment. Move along.

Heath Miller. Meh. I like Miller. I think Miller would be a serviceable TE on many teams. I don’t like this pick here. He’ll never be your flex play with guys like Rice and Smith and Sanders on this team, so what’s the point? For Cameron’s bye week? Just pick up someone else as a one week flier off waivers that week. Before you say it, Gordo, I realize in my own mock I spent a late round pick on Miller as well. This evaluation has made me realize that was a mistake. We both goofed.

Devonta Freeman in the 14^th is insane value. Among the current back up situations across the league, I think Freeman and West have the best chances to assume starter duties. Jackson is old and injury prone (didn’t he just hurt his hamstring yesterday?). In the 14^th round, there’s no reason not to take Devonta Freeman.

Defense last? Yeah, that sounds about right. Oh, you got Baltimore? Cool, I guess. Frankly, I don’t really care. I stream defenses week-to-week and it works for me. At least you weren’t a dummy that wasted a single digit round pick on an “elite” defense. I hate those guys.